My intentions have been good…I mean, we will be working on something and I think, “Oh! I should blog about this!” and then I get busy doing other things. I just haven’t been very good about sharing what we are up to. I’m still here and I’m still teaching with iPads in kindergarten. If you’re getting in over your head/ addicted please reach out either to a friend, family, counsellor, Alliance member or on the forum.Well, it’s been a while. I advise players to think carefully before chasing after a hero… Set your budget & stick to it. I chased Guardian Panther and succeeded against the odds. This means that Guardian Panther cost 213.32 cups of coffee… Summary To Put that in perspective, the average coffee price is $4.5 AUD. Gems: If we assume all gems came from “Mountain of Gems” packages, I would need 6x of these packages, each of which are $159.99 AUD each. It shouldn’t be embarked on lightly…įor me, if we take the 230 gem summons that I did to get Guardian Panther it comes to the following cost:Ĭost: 23 off 10x summons 2600 gems each = 59,800 gems I think it is important to highlight the fact that chasing heroes is expensive. If we go back to the cumulative probability of getting Guardian Panther we can see that I was again very fortunate. So I got VERY lucky in the 5* hero aspect in that I had a 4.58% distribution compared to the 3.8% expected distribution. If we compare the Portal Odds with the odds of my summons we see that I am slightly ahead on HotM summons, Classic 4* heroes & event 4* heroes. I ended up using 230 of my Gem Summons and 10 event coin summons for a total of 240 summons before SUCCESS!!! I got Guardian Panther on the first draw of my 23rd 10x pull. So knowing I had at best a 40% chance of coming out of all this with Panther, I split my summons up a bit… Did some on the first 3 days of the Event… Mainly that was to help me stick to my budget more than anything. Again using Cumulative Probability, in order to have a 75% chance of getting Guardian Panther, I would need to do 693 summons.Using Cumulative Probabilities, in order to have a 50% chance of getting Guardian Panther, I would need to do 347 summons.Cumulative Probability from my 250 Spins was only a 39.38% chance of success.Straight Odds to get Panther would need 500 summons (1 / 0.002 = 500).So the odds are very low… Very Very Low… So low in fact that: Odds of getting Guardian Panther = / = 1% / 5 = 0.2% (AGAIN THIS WAS MY BUDGET & MY DECISION based on my financial situation…) Expectations The remaining 30k Gems I planned on getting from Challenge Offers & making the rest up with “Mountain of Gem” purchases. Of these 65k Gems I had 35k stockpiled from Christmas & Halloween Offers. I set myself a Budget of 250 Gem Spins plus any Event Coin Spins I accumulated. This was the first event which featured the new Guardians Heroes in Guardian Chameleon, Guardian Gazelle and Guardian Bat I set out to have one final crack at getting Guardian Panther in the January 2020 Challenge Event (Guardians of Teltoc). If 1 Million players each summoned 229 times, 50,000 of those players wouldn’t get the HOTM.5 out of every 100 people won’t get the HOTM by the 229th pull.If 1 Million players each summoned 100 times, 270,000 of those players wouldn’t get the HOTM.27 out of every 100 people won’t get the HOTM by the 100th pull.99 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 352.95 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 229.73 times out of 100, you’ll get a HOTM by pull 100.On average, in a 10-pull, you have a 12.3% chance of summoning the HOTM.īut that statistic can lead our minds astray in exactly how our odds play out as we continue summoning. No amount of summoning will guarantee a HOTM. It’s important to remember that HOTM have very low summoning odds. Special thanks to for assistance on summoning odds and proofreading for this section. Or: How many summons are needed to get a HOTM? If you feel you may have an addiction to gambling/ gambling like activities please seek help. Please please please always set your monetary budget and STICK TO IT! What did it take me in my hunt for Guardian Panther? This is a quick post to summarise & warn players of the dangers in “Chasing” a specific hero. A Summons Experience - Chasing Guardian Panther
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